Kupyansk Clashes: Ukraine Forces Face Encirclement Amid Russian Advance

Russian forces have advanced to within less than 7 km of Kupyansk, a Kharkov region town helping hold Ukrainian defensive lines together. What’s the area’s strategic significance? And what would its loss mean for Ukraine militarily? Sputnik reached out to veteran Russian military intelligence officer Anatoliy Matviychuk for his assessment.

Russian forces are continuing their advance toward Kupyansk, the eastern Kharkov region settlement which serves as a major regional road and rail artery.

On Thursday, Ukrainian authorities announced the mandatory evacuation of the Kupyansk district, including the town and over fifty surrounding villages.

"In the Kupyansk direction, assault detachments of the Zapad group of forces improved their positions along the front line in the course of offensive operations," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said the same day.

Over a twenty-four our period, Konashenkov said, Russian forces "successfully repelled" seven attempted counterattacks by units of the 14th and 44thMechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Army in villages in the Lugansk People’s Republic and Kharkov region. "Enemy losses amounted to more than 55 Ukrainian servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, three vehicles, an M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer, and a US-made M777 artillery piece," the MoD spokesman said.

Reports on Russian efforts to make headway along the Kupyansk direction of the front first began to filter through in mid-to-late July, with the MoD reporting the capture of Molchanovo railway station, situated north of the city.

On August 7, Russian forces advanced 11 km along the front, and over 3 km into the depth of the enemy’s defenses, over a three-day period. A day later, Vitaly Ganchev, the head of the Kharkov region administration, said Russian troops had liberated five local settlements.

How Will Ukrainian Forces Respond?

Asked to comment on Russia’s operations in the Kupyansk direction, retired Army colonel Anatoliy Matviychuk, a veteran retired Soviet and Russian military intelligence officer and analyst with experience in Afghanistan and Syria, said that the advance will make Kiev’s forces hard pressed to fill gaps in the frontlines as their mobility is restricted by Russian superiority in air and artillery.

"First of all, this is great news that we are returning those territories which we left in the fall during the forced withdrawal. Second, we are advancing, destroying the enemy’s reserves, destroying the enemy’s manpower, equipment, and this is very important, because we’re approaching Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Effectively, we’re not only creating the prerequisites for the return of these lands, but for the destruction of the entire [enemy] group of forces in this area," Matviychuk said.

The observer says Ukrainian commanders have two options, neither of them enviable – to take the risk of deploying their reserves, or face the area's loss.

"Kiev has one corps left, somewhere in the area of 30,000-35,000 troops, but has problems with heavy equipment. Kiev is trying to bring it into battle, but hasn’t been able to succeed, since introducing it piece by piece will mean its destruction [from the ground, ed.], while bringing it in all at once is impossible due to the lack of fire support from the air and on the ground," Matviychuk said, implying that Russian forces would immediately notice and react to the attempted deployment of a large group of enemy forces.

Matviychuk cited Kiev's announced evacuation of the region as evidence that Ukrainian forces are preparing to completely surrender the area, with the evacuation likely introduced to strip Kupyansk of any useful industrial equipment and facilities, to mobilize any remaining men in the area, and gain a propaganda demonstrating that Kiev is "protecting the population of these territories from Russian aggression."

"There's no one left to mobilize already, only children, old people, the maimed and the crippled. And by the way, they don’t want to leave, because this is their home. They're called 'waiters', many of them are waiting for the arrival of the Russian army," Matviychuk said.

Kupyansk’s Strategic Significance

If the Russian advance continues and Kupriyansk is taken, its long-term significance will match that as the loss of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) this past spring, Matviychuk believes.

"This is first of all psychological damage and a drop in the morale of the army. Secondly, it will open up operational space for our forces, we can begin to perform maneuvers to encircle Ukraine's southern group of forces, closing the ring around Slavyansk and Kramatorsk [in the DPR]," he said.

"Kupyansk occupies a very advantageous position. Both to the west and to the east it is a logistical link – both roads and a railway for the transport of supplies. In general, I would call this a strategic point on whose retention the stability of the defense of this entire direction depends. The loss of Kupyansk means the loss of stability, and after that we will be able to go directly to the Kharkov direction," Matviychuk summed up.